Well, at some point we're going to have to stop calling this a short covering rally. Assuming the time is now I want to re-visit some of my assumptions, so I don't miss an obvious opportunity.
If the economy is to recover we can expect a few things to happen. For one thing we can expect life insurers to outperform the market. They got overly hurt when the market got hurt, and pessimism about the industry surrounded a fear of Dow 6500. If 6500 is off the table, I don't see any reason why HIG and LNC couldn't trade 17 and soon. MET and PRU could be 35 and 30 bid respectively...Moody's downgrade be damned. In six months they'll tell us that everything is fine, assuming it is. They are by their nature behind the curve. Vol probably trades 85 in MET, 110 in HIG and LNC...probably 95ish for PRU. If we roll into August with no news and a slow grind up we could see vol in the 50's and 60's across the board.
I don't know what's going on with all the merger chatter in Health Insurance but I do know I want out of that market making business. I liked it better when I thought I knew what was going on. If AET puts ever get cheap I want to pick some of those up. Much more fun to play that side of things. But divest-divest-divest. There's gotta be more fun stocks to trade out there.
Inflation is a sure bet assuming recovery. You cant just print two trillion dollars and not expect to have some sort of impact. I like oil riggers and copper smelters on general principle, but don't have enough information to bet it too big. But I want to be involved. I should look into the riggers more...in between breaks.
It could be that riggers and copper are the things I want to turn my attention to next. Or maybe just play Life insurance bigger. That is the question.
I could just leg into some buy writes in a few names, manage that position and be done with it. That would free up time and attention to game the life insurers better. i have some solid ideas with a good track record: I could choose to apply more resources there, rather than getting random positions in a new space.
Disclaimer:
These are meant as personal notes to self. This is not complete information, and I'm likely to change my mind and not bother to post my change of heart. Do NOT take this as a recommendation to purchase or sell any security. I am not, nor do I ever wish to be, in the advice giving business.
Monday, March 23, 2009
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Car Makers Get Help From Pelosi
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said in a letter to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson that the administration should consider expanding the $700 billion bailout to include car companies.
-Associated Press
Between that and the $700 Billion Dollar man saying it was very possible. I think you're going to see some sort of package to help the automakers out.
It will probably include some provision to build a cheaper Hybrid or All electric car. We need to get to the point where MOST of our vehicles run on electricity. We have shit tons of coal.
Before now there's been all this blah blah blah about the free market. Now the capitalists are coming with their hands out to the regulators. Real change is possible in this moment.
Here's a video of the guy with the government checkbook. See for yourself.
It would make sense to make investments as needed rather than by rule, we have to watch and see what's going on here. Follow the money ladies and gentlemen.
-Associated Press
Between that and the $700 Billion Dollar man saying it was very possible. I think you're going to see some sort of package to help the automakers out.
It will probably include some provision to build a cheaper Hybrid or All electric car. We need to get to the point where MOST of our vehicles run on electricity. We have shit tons of coal.
Before now there's been all this blah blah blah about the free market. Now the capitalists are coming with their hands out to the regulators. Real change is possible in this moment.
Here's a video of the guy with the government checkbook. See for yourself.
It would make sense to make investments as needed rather than by rule, we have to watch and see what's going on here. Follow the money ladies and gentlemen.
OPEC Threatens Production Cuts
Say goodbye to cheap gas.
OPEC is threatening to cut oil production if the decline in Oil prices continues any further.
Between that, and winter coming up I don't think we'll see prices below 55. By July we'll probably see triple digits again.
Hmm...
OPEC is threatening to cut oil production if the decline in Oil prices continues any further.
Between that, and winter coming up I don't think we'll see prices below 55. By July we'll probably see triple digits again.
Hmm...
Friday, November 7, 2008
US Economy: Job Cuts Up...So Is Market
All Automakers are experiencing problems. The Retail sector looks bad as well.
Detroit is asking for some of the $700 Billion and it's not being ruled OUT!!! Very interesting.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
